Phases of a society

Ray Dalio outlines 5 phases of a sovereign state:

1) In phase 1, people are poor and they think they are poor.
2) In phase 2, people are getting rich but they still think they are poor.
3) In phase 3, people are rich and they think they are rich.
4) In phase 4, people are poorer but they still think they are rich.
5) In phase 5, the state is on the decline but people are slow to accept it.

Does this mean people's perspective tends to be behind reality?

What is value to the receiver?

Something captivates my senses. Should I decide based on the sensation given by my senses? Should I judge a book by its cover?

What is value to the provider?

I see value in my own way. Something is of great value to me if I feel uneasy without it.

Revisiting the story of the 3 little pigs

The first house is built with straw; the second house is built with wooden sticks; the third house built with bricks. In the end, the wolf manages to blow down the first 2 houses but not the third. Does this mean that if I don't do a shabby job, I am more able to ride through difficult period?

Size and frequency of earthquakes

There have been an average of 18 earthquakes of magnitude 7-8 and 1 earthquake of magnitude > 8 each year. Does this imply the bigger the size of an event, the less probable it is to happen?

What makes a person lucky?

Richard Wiseman finds that lucky people generate their own good fortune via four basic principles. They:

1) are skilled at creating and noticing opportunities.
2) make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition.
3) create self-fulfilling prohesies via positive expectations.
4) adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good.

To be lucky, I need to at least try and try persistently?

Relevance of lie

I can actually feel good when I live in ignorance. Knowing the truth can cause distraction and confusion. Lenin once said: "A lie told often enough becomes the truth".

What is in the propaganda model?

The media is a powerful tool. The government can direct the media to execute biased reporting to control the mind of the people. Alternative source of media is essential to break out of this control.

How to nurture children?

As a parent, I shall expose my children to many experiences to let them find out what they like to do. It is best to let them be curious and ask questions. If they don't, I will try to ask them a few teasing questions. When I answer their question, I ought to give indirect answer or answer with a question. The worst is to give answer directly without they even asking.

What women seek in men?

Almost every woman, by nature, looks for a man who can be a provider so that she can feel safe and protected. She subtly seeks out this quality in men by initiating a request for a favour and observe how he responds. Besides being endowed with physical features that attract men to her, she spends substantial amount of energy enhancing her attractiveness. Dating is another way she interviews the men in her radar. Ideally, she wants her idol to be her mate.

Faith or blind faith?

I have faith in myself and the future when I embark on doing something. Do I know myself well enough that I have adequate interest and aptitude to keep me going?

How to manage my life like managing a business?

Very simply, I need to have a steady stream of income and manage my expense to below my income. To achieve a low expense, I have to reduce my want and need to the extent that I get budget surplus. At the same time, I can squeeze value out of my every cent spent by being price sensitive while optimizing utility.

What is in delayed gratification?

I have been working to get gratification in return. As I work, I save part of my reward in a piggy bank for subsequent gratification. As days go by, I am tempted to break the piggy bank to gratify myself. Can I resist the temptation for even greater gratification in the future as the reserve in my piggy bank grows bigger?

Studies have shown that people who can delay gratification tend to have greater achievement.

Value of passion and effort

Some people put in extreme amount effort to do something. They are really passionate about doing it and they feel the value of what they are doing. The value they have created are some abstract value which most people do not appreciate. Nevertheless, some lateral thinkers are able to perceive the abstract value and will patronize the work these passionate people.

Why is ding (鼎) 3-legged?

A 2-legged one will topple easily while a 4-legged one tends to rock easily on uneven ground. A 3-legged ding is definitely most stable - it will not rock or topple easily. Does this mean that a 3-party system is the most stable?

When 2 parties do not thrust each other, a third party may be able to mediate a settlement. Liberals and conservatives, being opposing camps, are also being separated and prevented from fighting one another by moderates.

Rhythm of the music

Government prints money and distribute it to the banks and the music begins. The banks decide where the money should go to and people flock to where the money is and dance. As people dance, we start to hear positive news. There will be a time dancing starts to ebb and I start to hear some bad news.

Problem with trickle-down economy?

The money printed by the government is first distributed to a few people who receive the money in bulk. Often, the money is not distributed to other people who do not receive the money initially. Instead, the money may be channelled into investment by these few people who are then the direct beneficiary of the money printing.

What is money?

Money is created by government of sovereign states in any amount that they deem appropriate. This money is distributed for the people to grab to exchange for goods and services. The value of the money lies on the faith people have on the money.

Money is a depreciative asset if government prints more money than the value of goods and services its people can produce.

What is in the MBTI model?

This model consists of 4 dichotomies:

1) extraversion / introversion
2) sensing / intuition
3) thinking / feeling
4) judging / perceiving

Extraversion / introversion describes whether my energy is outward-directed or inward-directed. Sensing / intuition describes whether I gather information by using my senses or hunch. Thinking / feeling describes whether I decide based on logical rules or empathizing with the situation. Judging / perceiving describes whether I prefer to gather infomation or make decision.

I believe most people do not fall into the extremities of the 4 dichotomies. For example, I seem to have some amount of extraversion and some amount of introversion.

Dual roles of water

Water can play a very constructive role like creating life. When the condition is right, like with the help of wind or there is lots of water, it can destroy what takes years to create.

Good or evil?

Being amoral, Nature has no concept of good or evil. Good or evil is uniquely a human concept. Humans decide to be part of a camp or not. When humans in 2 or more camps cannot coexist in harmony, conflict arises. Humans in either camp will perceive good and evil relative to themselves.

Imagination or fantasy?

Imagination is about forming a mental image of something not present to the senses or never before wholly perceived in reality. Extreme imagination can lead to fantasy which is pointless, unrealistic or improbable.

I dare to say that imagination with odds on my side can lead to followership. Imagination with odds not on my side can lead to what people discard as delusion.

Nature's composition of linear and lateral thinkers?

Nature produces many more right-handed people than left-handed people. The ratio is roughly about 80-90% righties to 10-20% lefties. Based on this composition, can I deduce that 80-90% of people tend to use their left brain only while the other 10-20% can think with their left and right brains?

It is logical to think that there should be fewer leaders than followers. I dare to imagine that had the composition of linear and lateral thinkers been skewed in the opposite direction, the world I see today will be very different. There will be much fewer mega structures. There will be much more discoveries and inventions but not enough people to execute and maintain them.

Causality in correlation?

Based on the chart above, there is certainly a correlation between the consumption of chocolate and the number of Nobel laureates produced. Does this mean that eating chocolate can help to produce Nobel laureates? Is it possible to be sheer coincidence?

Sometimes, it is really difficult to tell if a correlation is due to causality or not.

What is in The Matrix movies?

This movie series depicts enslaved humans or human machines locked in the Matrix world by intelligent machines. Some free humans are fighting against the intelligent machines which exist in the form of agents.

What is in the Star Wars movies?

This movie series depicts a right-wing, hierarchical camp pitting against a bunch of liberal freedom fighters. The right-wing camp shows traits of hierarchy, order, compliance and uniformity. The result is I see clones wearing uniform. The left-wing camp shows flat organizational structure, high individual skill and use of hunch. The result is I see the extensive use of the Force which is hard to attain.

Is George Lucas trying to tell me that human conflict is not going to end even with the greatest technological advancement?

Dog wags the tail or tail wags the dog?

Despite a bilateral relationship, who needs who more? If one party has a bigger bargaining power, it will make the other party suffer.

Wolf-sheep model

Each wolf needs a minimum number of sheep to support its survival. Hence, there is a minimum wolfs to sheep ratio below which the number of wolves will start to shrink. This wolf-sheep model is analogous to the capitalist-worker model in which the capitalists have ownership and harvest on the labour of the workers. When there are abundant workers, the survival of the capitalists is favourable. When the workers are scarce, the capitalists start to worry.

Government, capitalists and workers

In this model, the government controls the printing of money which rewards the capitalists. The capitalists in turn capitalize on the workers. This can easily be done if there are abundant workers and they are not represented by a strong union.

Shepherd, dog and sheep

The shepherd is the controller who commands his dog to control the sheep for him. He treats his dog well and sleeps with it. The dog is driven by reward but the sheep isn't. Instead, the sheep is driven by punishment and is regularly harvested. Ideally, the number of shepherds and dogs in comparison with sheep should not be too many so that the resources harvested is enough to be distributed to the shepherds and dogs.

Who wields the carrot and stick?

In a society, people are driven by carrots and sticks. The wielder is the controller of the societal system. And that is none other than the government of the day. The government tweaks policies to decide the composition of the carrots and sticks. Money is an effective tool to control people with reward and punishment.

Leftists, rightists and moderates

The leftists or liberals have a set of ideologies that is opposing to that of the rightists or conservatives. They are 2 extreme groups of people with strong opposing opinions. Sandwiched between them is a group of moderates with no strong opinions. The central moderates try to gather information before judging or they may be swayed by one-sided information. Hence, they are swingers. The moderates can be left-leaning or right-leaning.

To leap or not to leap?

I am currently living on a platform. I may or may not be happy on this platform. There is a platform somewhere waiting for me to leap to. The gap between the the platforms may be too wide for me to leap across. There may be times the gap is narrow enough for my athletic ability to leap across. If I attempt to leap and fail and fall into the gap, I may be in a worse state than now. By luck, I may fall into a hole and settle in it and end up liking it.

Do I want to leap?

What is the top movie of all time?

To my surprise, IMDb rates The Shawshank Redemption as the top movie of all time based on popular votes. After watching the movie, I feel that the author of the story, Stephen King, is perhaps trying to convey a hidden message to me. I can imagine that I am locked up in an invisible prison. To escape from this prison, I need to have a workable plan, patience and persistence?

Does problem come from probing?

Sometimes, I wonder if the word problem comes from the word probe. If this is the case, does it mean that a problem requires me to probe? Or does it mean I see a problem after I probe? And the problem I see depends on how I probe? And if I don't probe, I do not see any problem?

Reality is virtual?

A Buddhist script writes 色即是空 which has been translated to "form is emptiness". I exist in a physical form. So are the objects around me. My eyes receive some images. After my brain performs some post-processing, it forms some interpreted images which my brain perceives. My eyes are basically a tool or sensing device. Are these images virtual?

What does optical illusion imply?

My brain likes to add interpretation to optical signals to form images on my brain. The interpretation can sometimes mislead me to judgement which is contrary to the actual situation. In a way, my eyes simply act as tools to receive stimulus from the environment. Ultimately, my brain decides what I see.

How do people assign value?

Why do people choose to go through the immense hardship of climbing mountain where there is no reward other than personal satisfaction? As an observer, I can't see any value in doing this. To the climber himself, the value is enormous. The sense of achievement and the rise in dopamine level in his brain is simply not experienced by any person other than him.

Is being abnormal bad?

I conveniently divide the people in a society into 3 classes by wealth in which most of the people are in the middle class in a normal distribution. The normal people, being the majority, forms the middle class.

There is a small group of people who don't like to follow the majority and choose to be abnormal. If they do well, they fall into the upper class. If they don't, they fall into the lowest class.

Leftist vs rightist

The terms "left" and "right" appeared during the French Revolution when members of the National Assembly divided into supporters of the king to the president's right and supporters of the revolution to his left.

A leftist generally advocates for individualism and egalitarianism. The individual tends to emphasize personal rights while neglecting personal responsibilities. When widely adopted, this leads to social decay. Egalitarianism is the advocation of equality of outcome rather than equality of opportunity.

A rightist generally advocates a philosophy which revolves around not doing much. He, as a conservative, essentially argues keeping things the way they are rather than supporting change.

To be employed, self-employed or employing?

Take cooking for example, there are cooks who are employees, self-employed or employers. A punishment-driven cook can choose to be an employee. A reward-driven cook can choose to be an employer. A self-employed cook happens to be a hybrid. He represents a transition from an employee to an employer.

Handedness of US presidents

Since 1929, 6 US presidents are left-handed while 7 are right-handed. The percentage of the population who are left-handed is only about 10%. Amar Klar, a scientist who has worked on handedness, says that left-handed people "have a wider scope of thinking", and points to the disproportionately high number of Nobel Prize winners, writers, and painters who are left-handed.

Does this imply that holistic thinking can help to produce good scientists and leaders?

To be reward-driven or punishment-driven?

Reward-driven people are seekers who never feel enough. Once they get one reward, they will look for the next reward. They are self-motivated and don't have to be prompted to do something.

Punishment-driven people, on the other hand, like to relax under the trees. They are not self-motivated and have to be prompted to do something. Or they will do something out of fear.

Dopamine vs serotonin

Personality traits such as extraversion and reward seeking have been linked to higher sensitivity to rewarding stimuli of dopamine. Serotonin is popularly thought to be a contributor to feelings of well-being and happiness.

People who are sensitive to dopamine will be reward-driven and those who are not sensitive to dopamine will be punishment-driven, in which case a perception of punishment leads to a reduction of serotonin level in the brain?

Linear vs lateral thinking

Superior thinkers process information in a lateral manner, not linear. Unfortunately, most people are linear thinkers and only a few are lateral. Schools with teaching processes that encourage rote memorization and regurgitation for tests reinforce linear thinking patterns.

Linear thinking is characterized by exclusivity (if A is true, then B must be false) and narrow, literal interpretation. Lateral thinking is solving problems through an indirect and creative approach, using reasoning that is not immediately obvious and involving ideas that may not be obtainable by using only traditional step-by-step logic.

Using alternative ways to do the same thing also exhibits lateral thinking.

Handedness of the brain

The left brain controls the right hand while right brain controls the left hand. Most people use only their left brain for logical thinking and communication while a few people use their right brain together with their left brain to add holistic thinking, imagination and creativity to their logical thinking and communication. Music, art and reading books to spark fantasy or imagination can help to train the use of right brain.

Learning and reinforcement

Dopamine released in the brain is commonly associated with the reward system of the brain, providing feeling of enjoyment and reinforcement to motivate a person to perform certain activities. I don't like to eat durian initially. After being persuaded to eat it time and again, I begin to acquire the liking for its taste. Is it the release of dopamine that makes me like durian? Is dopamine the cause of obsession and, more seriously, addiction?

How does talent become skill?

Specific profession requires specific domain knowledge acquired in the form of memory. With my inborn talent, I can acquire polished skill suited for the profession via training and learning. For example, my visual/spatial and bodily/kinesthetic talent can be translated into skill in one of the sports above via training to acquire memory, which in this case is muscle memory.

How to discover my Nature?

My Nature comprises of my first draft of morality and talent, which I do not know what their composition is. To find out, I have to go through many experiences to test whether my body and soul resonate with the experiences. Where there is resonance, I will have some form of facial or bodily expression that exhibits my happiness.

Nature vs nurture

I am born with a first draft of morality and talent. This is my Nature but I don't know what this first version of Nature is. Via continuous social conditioning, social engineering, education, training, etc, my morality and talent are iterated into subsequent versions. This is nurture. Through the process of nurturing, my original morality and talent may be suppressed or enhanced.

What are the channels of talent?

Howard Gardner proposes the theory of multiple intelligences in which human talent can be divided into 7 categories:

1) verbal / linguistic
2) mathematical / logical
3) visual / spatial
4) musical / rhythmic
5) bodily / kinesthetic
6) social / interpersonal
7) reflective / intrapersonal

Just like morality, I am born with a first draft of talent. After enhancement via learning and training, my talent can become polished skill which can be used to create values in a society. A combination of the above skills is required for a specific profession.

Hmm, what is the type of talent possessed by a good chef? Good sensory talent?

What is the moral yardstick?

I have my own moral yardstick that makes me suitable for a specific nature of work. And, I resonate with people who have similar moral yardstick. That is why specific types of profession are suitable for specific types of people?

What are the 3 monkeys doing?

One monkey is covering its eyes, signifying seeing no evil; one monkey is covering its ears, signifying hearing no evil; one monkey is covering its mouth, signifying speaking no evil. Obviously, the monkey which covers its eyes is shown something evil but it chooses not to see it. This is in line with the original Chinese version of the phrase - see only what is righteous to see (非礼勿视).

The translated English phrase can, however, literally mean seeing no evil in things other people deem evil.

Biased sensing and biased opinion is how I become biased.